Monday, August 29, 2011

Boise State Game Prediction

Um, I have no idea.

I really don't, but I'm going to lay out how I'm more concerned with how we look and how a loss might not be the worst thing in the world. Just bear with me:

To me, the program started it's gradual fall off the cliff after 2005. If not for that magical run in 2007 (which was actually the 2nd half of the season; does everyone remember the gloom & doom after that Vandy game and entering the bye week before UF? We actually stomped on the Vandy star and saw the first official glimpse of Evil Richt as he admonished the players for doing so. Moreno had his coming out party vs. the Gators and we couldn't be beat the rest of the way, finishing #2 in the nation), we would officially be entering year 6 of the downward slope. The Blackout game vs. Bama showed we weren't ready to play with the big boys (that's when the concerns about the S&C program first started to be loudly brought up) as we were dominated physically from the start and probably mentally after the end of the 1st quarter.

The cries for Willie Martinez's head became louder and louder and Richt finally started making moves, the latest being the long-overdue revamping of the aforementioned S&C program. The locker room cancers we suspected last year have been brought to light by carefully-worded phrases from the head coach and other players.

Where are we now? Well, there's a lot of positive talk about how we look in practice, in the weight room, on the field, etc. That's all fine well and dandy, but if we come out looking unprepared, get beat on big plays and get outworked by a less talented team, the bitching is going to be at a record level, the wardrobe jokes are going to be unbearable, Rev will cancel this blog and the whole talk is cheap crap will be splattered all over the wall after it gets done hitting the fan.

Now, let's say we come out looking strong on both sides of the ball, showing some fiestiness, yet still lose. That, I can live with. Entering the pivotal week 2 showdown w/ SC, we need to be in a positive frame of mind because that game is infinitely more important and is going to be a lot tougher, IMHO. Coming in off a hard-fought loss will likely have us pissed off. Coming in after getting embarrassed will likely have our psyche more fragile than that of an overweight supermodel.

This is the biggest issue I have with opening w/ Boise State: after the craptacular way we finished last year, opening with the #5 team in the country is really ballsy and potentially galactically stupid. If we play well and beat them, the demons are exorcised and everyone can breathe a sigh of relief. If we get our asses whipped (which I honest to God don't think will happen), dust off your torches and pitchforks.

Now, here's my game prediction: if our front 7 performs as expected and the secondary doesn't give up big plays, we'll be in this game. We do not in any way shape, form or fashion want to get into a shootout with these ponies. Along with the strong D, if our TBs and receivers perform well, we'll win. If their D line shuts down our running game and we sputter moving the ball downfield, we'll lose.

Sports is about momentum & motivation. You can have all the talent and all the plays, but unless you really come to play and do what you're supposed to do, it's a crapshoot. Richt can only motivate and game plan so much. I really think the key for us is going to be how we start. If it's on O, breaking off a big play (deep ball or a big run by Crowell) or if it's on D, knocking Moore around like he's Colt Brennan and/or snuffing their first series will get the crowd into it and we should be off and running. It's going to be a big challenge for us and we're all about to find out if we're back on track or still have a ways to go.

I'm nervous and excited as hell.

Prediction: If we play well & control the line of scrimmage, UGA 31, BSU 17

If we don't, BSU 35, UGA 21

Saturday can't get here soon enough.

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