Wednesday, October 26, 2011

UF thoughts/predictions

I'm VERY interested in seeing what each coaching staff is able to do with a week off. Without question, we are in better shape than they are. We've been able to win our last 5 games despite not really playing a complete game in any of them and not really having to reach into the bag of tricks. In fact, we haven't trailed for one second in the last 5 games. This is both good and bad, more on that in a second.

On the other hand, they've had to pull out everything they could just to compete in their last 3 games. The truth is that if we don't come out prepared, we have no one to blame but ourselves. My biggest concern is it doesn't seem to matter who the coach is down there, they're able to come up with some new twist after a bye week that always confuses us and we are unable to adjust (I was sitting in Jax with Rev watching them throw 723 screen plays on us one year and we stopped 4 of them). We had all summer to prepare for Boise and I was shocked at how unprepared we looked. I didn't think we'd win the game but really thought we'd look better.

I'm really worried that our offense will disappear down there again. Over CMR's 10 years, there's been games where you just can't believe how bad our offense is. And it's not always against good teams, Colorado at home years ago and the UCF bowl game last year immediately come to mind.

Our last 10 games against UF have resulted in 10, 13, 13, 31, 10, 14, 42, 10, 17, 31 points on offense. I usually feel good if we get in a defensive low scoring battle, but history shows that doesn't work against UF. Outside of last years OT loss, our offense isn't doing their part in these games.

Back to my earlier comment about not trailing in any of our last 5 games/wins. This concerns me because we haven't proven that we can come back and win a game. The best way I can describe our recent strategy has been to get ahead and hold on for dear life. We haven't played better once we get a lead and closed anyone out like really good teams do. Hopefully, we can continue to get out to early leads and not have to worry about trailing.

Simple keys to the game:
  • Must be able to run the ball (we lose if we don't go over 125 yards)
  • Stay ahead of the sticks and keep them behind them (win the 1st down battle on both sides of the ball)
  • Do not give away any points (no missed FG's, no turnovers that result in points, and no special team TD's given)
  • Red-Zone offense
  • Coaching
I really trust our defense right now but have very little faith in the offense and special teams. I think that UF will run a lot of misdirection/trick plays (5-10) and those have been killing us this year. They still have a lot of athletes and with all these different offensive sets they've had to come up with because of QB issues, we could see come crazy stuff. I like our chances if they don't hit any of these for huge gains.

Just putting this out there about injuries, it seems that a lot of times when a guy comes back after missing many games, that they either re-tweak something or they aren't quite up to game speed. I only say this because I'm not overly worried about Brantley but on the other end, I'm not expecting a lot from Ogletree either.

Maybe I've just left Jacksonville disappointed too many times to believe in us down there. At some point, doesn't the Cubs syndrome come in and you just start believing that the sports gods are against us and we'll find away to lose. My first game attended down there was in 1992 and the last in 2008. In around 10 trips down there I've seen blow outs, heart breakers, and only one win (1997). Yes, every year is different and past years shouldn't matter..........but why does it feel so much like they do matter. The only thing that will surprise me in this game is a blow out either way, I expect it to be close and I really think they need it more and somehow find a way to do it to us again. I'm 7-0 right now on our season and would love nothing more than to be 7-1 Saturday night.

Simply Pessimistic
UGA - 16
UF - 22

Plus they get the last at bat since they're the home team this year.


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